Chapter 148: The Kunyang Strategy

Superior, intermediate, and inferior strategies.

This was the strategic blueprint that Shen Chen had been contemplating from the previous year up to the present.

Over the years, Liu Bei had drifted from place to place like rootless duckweed simply because he lacked a strategist by his side to chart a course. Upon learning that Shen Chen had a viable strategy, he eagerly asked, "What is the superior strategy?"

"The superior strategy is, naturally, for Yuan Shao and Cao Cao to both suffer heavy losses!"

Shen Chen explained, "As the saying goes, 'When the snipe and the clam grapple, it is the fisherman who profits.' When two tigers fight, one must never allow either to die or be merely wounded. A wounded tiger can still devour men, let alone a vigorous one. Therefore, we must strike at the critical moment to ensure they both bleed each other dry."

"Both suffer heavy losses?"

Liu Bei narrowed his eyes slightly, beginning to ponder and ruminate.

Shen Chen nodded and said, "Precisely. Once we achieve this, Cao Cao will be unable to march north, and Yuan Shao will be unable to push south. With both sides deadlocked across the Yellow River, neither will be able to swallow the other. Seizing this opportunity, we can use Nanyang as our base and plot for grand achievements!"

Liu Bei pressed anxiously, "Then how can we bring this about?"

Shen Chen replied, "It can only work if Cao Cao manages to defeat Yuan Shao. Since we are in Nanyang, and Nanyang is a mere stone's throw from Yingchuan, the moment Cao Cao defeats Yuan Shao, we launch a surprise raid on Xuchang. He will inevitably be forced to turn back for reinforcements and dare not press the pursuit northward. At that point, we retreat to the lands of Nanyang, fortify ourselves there, and plot our next move."

Liu Bei looked astonished and said, "Trying to make Cao Cao defeat Lord Yuan is likely no easy task. Yuan Shao is descended from three dukes over four generations, dominating the lands north of the Yellow River with an army numbering well over two hundred thousand. Given Cao Cao's current strength, how could he possibly match him?"

Shen Chen responded, "Man proposes, heaven disposes. If Cao Cao falls to Yuan Shao, this superior strategy naturally becomes void, and we will have no choice but to opt for the intermediate or inferior strategies."

The plan for mutual destruction was the very scheme Shen Chen had spent years devising to maximize the gains from the upcoming Battle of Guandu.

Naturally, everyone knew the outcome of the Battle of Guandu: Xu You turned traitor and informed Cao Cao about Wuchao, prompting Cao Cao to launch a nocturnal surprise attack on Wuchao, burning Yuan Shao's grain supplies and routing the Yuan army. Consequently, all eighty thousand elite troops were buried alive, dealing a fatal blow to Yuan Shao's vitality and ultimately leading to his death from grief and anger.

Once Yuan Shao died, the Yuan family fell into internal strife over succession. Cao Cao continuously sowed discord, co-opted factions, and defeated them one by one, thereby completely pacifying the northern territories.

So how could one maximize the gains?

Naturally, it lay in finding a way to preserve Yuan Shao's strength. Even if Yuan Shao could not be granted a few more years of life, simply ensuring that those eighty thousand elite troops returned north alive would make it immensely difficult for Cao Cao to subjugate Ji Province.

One must remember that even in history, after the Battle of Guandu, Cao Cao spent a full five years merely to pacify the north.

With well over a hundred thousand of Yuan Shao's main forces wiped out at Yanjin, Baima, and Guandu—including eighty thousand perishing directly at Guandu—and with Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang mutually attacking each other, Cao Cao still found it extraordinarily difficult to secure the north amidst such massive losses and internal discord. This alone showed how formidable the power base left behind by Yuan Shao truly was.

Therefore, to a certain extent, if Yuan Shao's losses could be reduced so that his defeat was not so catastrophic—even if he merely lived one year longer to resolve the succession issue, or if those eighty thousand elite troops were preserved—the time required for Cao Cao to conquer the north would increase exponentially.

At that time, Shen Chen and Liu Bei would have ample time and operational space in the south, whether plotting to seize Jing Province, Yi Province, or Jiangdong. The Battle of Chibi might not even take place, and upon Liu Biao's death, Jing Province would be theirs for the taking.

However, Liu Bei could not possibly see that far ahead. He merely frowned and said, "Nanyang is the territory of Liu Jingsheng. To use Nanyang as our foundation will likely arouse Liu Biao's suspicions."

Shen Chen smiled and said, "Liu Biao dreads a northern invasion from across the Yellow River, yet he has never dared to station heavy troops in Nanyang. He relies solely on the natural barrier of the Han River to secure the two commanderies of Nanjun and Jiangxia, and he cannot even properly control southern Jing Province, as seen with Zhang Xian's rebellion. If someone from the north is willing to help him guard his gates, he would likely be overjoyed. Has my lord not heard of the affair concerning Zhang Xiu?"

"Ah."

Liu Bei nodded, then expressed his worry: "How will Zhang Xiu handle this?"

Shen Chen answered, "This man has deep blood feuds with both Cao Cao and Liu Biao. He dares not surrender to Cao Cao, and surrendering to Liu Biao was merely a last resort, while Liu Biao dares not trust him either. Therefore, for now, he only dares to hold the lands west of Nanyang. My lord can take the territory north of Anyang, while I remain in Xincheng, pretending to be Liu Biao's vanguard. When the time is ripe, we can first seize Jing Province to serve as our foundation."

Pretending to be Liu Biao's vanguard while helping himself seize Jing Province as a base?

Liu Bei's eyes widened in sheer disbelief as he stammered, "Is the young scholar not under Lord Liu of Jing Province's banner? Could it be—"

"Indeed."

Shen Chen stood up, bowed, and cupped his hands in salute, "I have never truly sworn allegiance to Liu Biao. This northward expedition to attack Cao Cao was a Colonel's rank he only bestowed upon me later. In my heart, I have always believed that Lord Xuande is the true enlightened lord!"

"Young scholar..."

Liu Bei was initially in disbelief, but then his face broke into wild ecstasy. He stepped forward, grasped Shen Chen's hands, and was so overjoyed that tears welled up in his eyes.

Only Shen Chen felt a complex mix of emotions.

This could be considered finally clarifying his stance and future allegiance to Liu Bei once and for all.

In truth, Liu Biao had shown kindness to Shen Chen.

Although Liu Bei had once saved the lives of him and his clan, Liu Biao had also taken care of his extended family.

The Deng and Shen clans of Huangmenting were able to migrate to Nanyang and live in peace and contentment today precisely because of Liu Biao's assistance.

Helping Liu Bei seize Jing Province might indeed carry the taint of ingratitude and betrayal.

Yet Shen Chen had no alternative.

Who could blame Liu Biao for not having many years left to live?

Liu Cong was an appeaser, whose interests were tightly bound with the capitulationist gentry families of Jing Province.

As for Liu Qi, though a decent man, he was destined to die an early death from illness.

Therefore, Shen Chen had no choice but to choose Liu Bei.

More importantly, Liu Bei's ideology and worldview were closely aligned with his own: both placed the people first and attached great importance to the lower classes.

A great man once said that history belongs to the people.

Shen Chen was likewise firmly resolved to build a country for the common folk free from hunger, war, and poverty.

Since he could not overthrow the feudal system directly, he had to settle for the next best thing—refusing to lose himself to the pursuit of power, and instead partnering with a benevolent ruler to jointly construct an ideal state.

And not merely as a subordinate, but as a partner!

Yes.

Shen Chen never felt that he was submitting to Liu Bei; rather, he was cooperating with Liu Bei to first build a brand-new Han Dynasty and then embark on his own reforms.

It was the same kind of relationship Cao Cao shared with Xun Yu.

When the time came and he possessed sufficient political weight, Shen Chen even hoped to sign a pact with Liu Bei.

He intended to resolutely outlaw autocratic rule by Liu Bei, establish a collective decision-making body in the future, and utilize a democratic voting system to make major decisions.

This would increase the speaking power of Zhuge Liang, Pang Tong, and Xu Shu. Secondly, it was to prevent the recurrence of tragedies like later on, when Liu Bei stubbornly ignored advice and ultimately led the disastrous Battle of Yiling.

These were Shen Chen's consistent and unwavering aspirations.

As for who the emperor might be, he cared little. As someone firmly standing on the side of the masses, Shen Chen wished even more that there were no emperors to oppress and exploit them.

Yet given the current circumstances, attempting to overthrow the feudal system was an impossibility.

Nor could he cooperate with Cao Cao, who massacred entire cities. Thus, partnering with Liu Bei—who came from humble origins and remained closest to the common people—was unquestionably the optimal choice.

As for Liu Biao, who had shown him grace, there was simply no help for it; his lifespan was limited, and he would die of illness in just a few years. All Shen Chen could do was treat Liu Cong and Liu Qi's descendants generously in the future to repay that debt of gratitude.

Hearing Shen Chen's words, Liu Bei was filled with boundless joy. Wiping away his tears, he stepped forward with excitement, helped him up, and said, "To obtain the young scholar is truly like a fish finding water."

"I hail from the humblest origins and know that the common people beneath heaven suffer bitterly. The various warlords know only how to fight for power and profit, never once thinking to benefit the masses or save millions of souls."

Shen Chen said solemnly, "Only Lord Xuande keeps the common folk in his heart, possessing the demeanor of an enlightened master. My heart yearns for this as well, and I am willing to bear the spear and serve as your vanguard!"

"I am merely a foolish and untalented man, wishing only to serve His Majesty. How could I ever be considered an enlightened lord?"

Liu Bei waved his hand and said, "My sole wish is simply that the common people of the Han Dynasty may live in peace and contentment, have clothes to wear, and food to eat; that the Son of Heaven may sit securely in the ancestral hall and cleanse the universe, free from wicked traitors like Zhang Rang and Zhao Zhong. That will be enough."

Shen Chen smiled and said, "Precisely because of this, my lord must step forward, restore the universe, and settle the cosmos."

"The young scholar's intent, I now understand."

Liu Bei sighed and said, "Yet Lord Liu of Jing Province and I are both members of the imperial clan. How can I seize the enterprise of a fellow clansman?"

Shen Chen replied, "This is precisely why I advise my lord to first use Nanyang as your foundation and slowly plot for the north. We shall watch the changes in the times and act accordingly. If Yuan Shao is strong, we remain inactive; if Cao Cao is strong, we harass his rear. If we can find an opportunity to seize Yu Province, that would be best."

Nanyang was the birthplace of Emperor Guangwu, Liu Xiu. This region connected the north and south, spanning an area of thirty-six thousand square kilometers—only three thousand square kilometers smaller than the Guanzhong Basin.

The Qin Dynasty rose to conquer the empire starting from the thirty-nine thousand square kilometers of the Guanzhong Basin, and Liu Bei could likewise use Nanyang as a base to march north against Cao Cao, seize Yu Province, or push south after Liu Biao's death to claim Jing Province.

The viability of this strategic plan relied primarily on Nanyang's current population.

According to historical records, the areas of Guanzhong and Nanyang were comparable, but because Guanzhong had been the capital region during the Qin and Western Han dynasties, its population had once flourished, commerce had thrived, and it had been slightly wealthier than Nanyang, boasting hundreds of thousands more people.

However, by the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Liangzhou warlords had repeatedly invaded the Sanfu region, Dong Zhuo had forced the migration of the capital to Chang'an, and various wars, plagues, and natural disasters had struck. Consequently, Guanzhong's population had dropped by ninety percent, withered and ruined to the extreme, falling from 2.4 million down to fewer than three or four hundred thousand.

In contrast, Jing Province—especially Nanyang—saw an explosion in population. Due to the wars in the north, massive numbers of people migrated southward. Yangzhou's population grew from 3.2 million to 4.33 million, while Jing Province surged from 3.59 million to 6.2 million.

Among them, Nanyang became the primary destination for migration due to its vast arable land. Over the years, wave after wave of refugees from Henan, Guanzhong, and Sili had relocated there, pushing its population well past the million mark.

Therefore, compared to the utterly devastated Guanzhong where "not a crow can be heard for a thousand miles," today's Nanyang was undeniably the superior choice in terms of troop sources, grain supplies, and mineral resources.

Thus, Shen Chen's superior strategy was remarkably straightforward.

It was to exploit the period during the Battle of Guandu, right after the burning of Wuchao, to launch a third surprise raid on Xuchang, forcing Cao Cao to personally rush back to defend it.

Records in the *Chronicles of the Three Kingdoms* note that Cao Cao burned Wuchao in October of the fifth year of Jian'an, while Yuan Shao was defeated in November. This meant that even after the grain supplies at Wuchao were reduced to ashes, Yuan Shao's camp at Guandu still had roughly less than a month's worth of rations remaining.

During that month, Yuan Shao attempted to forcibly defeat Cao Cao, pressing Zhang He and Gao Lan to launch a frontal assault on the camps. In the end, when they failed to break through and rations ran critically low, Yuan Shao's relentless urging drove them to desperation, ultimately forcing their surrender.

Therefore, as long as enough commotion was stirred up within that month to pressure Cao Cao to the breaking point, forcing him to rush back to defend Xuchang and preventing him from burying those eighty thousand surrendered troops alive, the situation would undergo a massive turning point.

Even if fewer than half of the Yuan army managed to escape back north, as long as the elite core of Yuan's forces was not entirely wiped out and Yuan Shao managed to hang on by a thread for another year or half, it would give Cao Cao no end of trouble.

By then, Shen Chen and Liu Bei could use Nanyang as a base: either launching a northern expedition against Cao Cao to coordinate with Yuan Shao in seizing Yu Province, or quietly waiting for Liu Biao to kick the bucket to capture Jing Province, and subsequently moving against Jiangdong or Yi Province. As long as Cao Cao and Yuan Shao remained locked in a stalemate without a clear victor, they would forever reap the profits.

"I see."

Liu Bei pondered and said, "Yet I have a question: why don't we seize the opportunity while Yuan and Cao are at war to take Xuchang and escort the Son of Heaven to Jing Province?"

"The Son of Heaven is akin to a precious jewel; whoever holds him will inevitably become the target of attacks from all under heaven."

Shen Chen smiled bitterly and said, "As Yuan and Cao vie for supremacy, whichever side emerges victorious will inevitably throw all its might into attacking Nanyang. Without strength, one cannot hold it. Therefore, escorting the Son of Heaven to Nanyang is a measure of last resort—much like the intermediate strategy I wish to propose."

"The intermediate strategy?"

Liu Bei listened to Shen Chen's words, nodding slightly as he said, "The superior strategy is for Cao Cao and Yuan Shao to both suffer heavy losses, allowing us to use Nanyang as our base and march north against Cao Cao. Then what is the intermediate strategy?"

Shen Chen answered, "The intermediate strategy is that if Cao Cao is defeated, we launch a surprise raid on Xuchang, escort the Emperor back to Nanyang, and ally with Liu Biao and Sun Quan to jointly resist Yuan Shao."

Yuan Shao's sphere of influence was immense. According to historical records, his total military strength at the time had already reached over two hundred thousand, approaching three hundred thousand.

Eighty thousand had died at the Battle of Guandu, but prior to that were the Battle of Baima—where Yan Liang brought thirty to forty thousand—and the Battle of Yanjin—where Wen Chou brought five to six thousand—plus the tens of thousands of Yuan troops defeated by Cao Cao during the burning of Wuchao.

This showed that in this campaign alone, Yuan Shao had deployed well over a hundred thousand troops. Furthermore, Qing Province, You Province, and Bing Province all required personnel to guard them, meaning Yuan Shao's strength was nearly double that of Cao Cao.

Shen Chen was also well aware that constantly harassing Cao Cao's rear would place immense pressure on Cao Cao's frontlines. Should Cao Cao crack under that pressure and collapse before Xu You arrived, they would end up facing a Yuan Shao who controlled the entirety of both Henan and Hebei—an overwhelmingly terrifying pressure.

Thus, they would have no choice but to seize Liu Xie first, securing the moral high ground and righteous banner of imperial authority, and then unite with Liu Biao, Sun Ce, Liu Zhang, and others to fight Yuan Shao. In truth, this could already be considered an inferior strategy; after all, if Yuan Shao won the Battle of Guandu, his swollen power would be so horrifying that even a coalition of multiple factions might not defeat him.

"And what is the inferior strategy?"

Liu Bei stroked his beard in deep thought. If the intermediate strategy was already this formidable, what could the inferior strategy possibly be like?

Shen Chen stated, "The inferior strategy is not to attack Xuchang, but to wait and watch the developments. Once Yuan and Cao decide the victor, the winner will inevitably march south to attack Liu Biao. My lord can attach yourself to Liu Biao, first securing southern Jing Province, and subsequently seizing Yi Province to serve as our base, thereby dividing the empire into three parts. Whenever change arises in the empire, we advance along two fronts, jointly conquering the Central Plains from Yi and Jing Provinces. Then our hegemony can be achieved, and the Han Dynasty can be restored."

This was the Longzhong Plan.

Why was the Longzhong Plan considered an inferior strategy?

Because the political landscape was different.

When Zhuge Liang devised the Longzhong Plan, the north was already pacified, and Cao Cao's dominance was a fait accompli.

Therefore, he could only pave the way for Liu Bei to seize Yi Province and divide the empire into three parts.

Yet currently, Cao Cao and Yuan Shao had yet to determine a victor, meaning opportunities abounded and there was far greater room for maneuver.

Take the superior strategy, for instance: by letting Yuan and Cao exhaust each other in a grueling struggle, Liu Bei could develop steadily in Nanyang, advancing north to claim Yu Province or moving south to acquire Jing Province, while preventing Sun Quan from making trouble, thus avoiding any disputes over borrowing Jing Province.

The intermediate strategy was much less ideal because its premise was that Yuan Shao won and Cao Cao lost. Yuan Shao's power would be so overwhelming that they would have no choice but to take Liu Xie to Nanyang.

Although they would still appear weak, holding Liu Xie's righteous authority would allow them to issue imperial edicts for Liu Biao and Sun Quan to form an alliance, and even influence the north to spark a rebellion in Yuan Shao's rear. Once Liu Biao died, Liu Xie could issue an edict appointing Liu Bei as the Governor of Jing Province, making everything smooth and logical.

More importantly, Shen Chen cared little about who the emperor was. What he needed was a group of like-minded companions who cared for the people just as he did. Even if they welcomed the Son of Heaven and Liu Bei became a powerful minister, it would still be vastly superior to someone like Cao Cao, who slaughtered cities.

Hence, both the superior and intermediate strategies were excellent.

In comparison, the inferior strategy was naturally a choice born of helplessness.

As for other alternatives—

Such as entering Guanzhong through Wuguan in Nanyang to develop there, or heading north along the Han River to directly capture Hanchuan and then seize Yi Province—he had indeed entertained such thoughts in the past.

Yet once he truly arrived at the end of the Han Dynasty, he realized how idealistic and naive those notions were.

First, Guanzhong: its population was decimated, and it faced the pincer threat of Han Sui, Ma Teng, and Cao Cao. Trying to build a foundation with a mere population of three to four hundred thousand would be a path to certain death.

Second, Hanchuan (Hanzhong): attacking it from Guanzhong was exceedingly difficult. Even Cao Cao's force of over a hundred thousand had relied on getting lost at night and stumbling into Hanzhong by sheer accident.

Moving north by water along the Han River—Cao Zhen and Sima Yi had once toyed with this idea, only for flash floods to erupt, virtually wiping out their entire army.

This was primarily due to the Wudu Great Earthquake during the Western Han Dynasty, which caused the Han River to change its course, rendering land routes impassable along the lower reaches of Hanzhong and forcing travelers to rely solely on waterways. These waterways were treacherous with rapid currents and prone to torrential rains, making flash floods a constant hazard. A moment of carelessness led straight to the fate suffered by Sima Yi and Cao Zhen.

Therefore, the absolute best choice was to occupy the Nanyang Basin, which boasted a massive population and vast agricultural land, using it as a base to either push south or launch a northern expedition depending on the shifting tides of the times.

"Mm."

Having heard Shen Chen out, Liu Bei shook his head and said, "The inferior strategy will not do. The Son of Heaven is still waiting in Xuchang for me to rescue him; how could I abandon the Emperor to his fate? When the situation changes, let us pursue either the superior or intermediate strategies."

"Very well."

Shen Chen cupped his hands and said, "I share the exact same thought. However, I pray my lord understands that regardless of whether we execute the superior or intermediate strategy, we must first go to Nanyang and attach ourselves to Liu Biao. Once we arrive in Nanyang, I will draw a clear line between us and pretend we are strangers. At that time, my lord must on no account converse with me in Liu Biao's presence."

"Why is that?"

Liu Bei asked in astonishment.

Shen Chen explained, "Though Liu Biao appears magnanimous, his mind is actually narrow and he cannot tolerate others. If my lord goes to Nanyang and various heroes and champions flock to your banner, you will inevitably arouse his suspicion. Therefore, after going to Nanyang, my lord must conduct yourself with utmost humility and avoid drawing too much attention."

"Is that so?"

Liu Bei slowly nodded and said in a deep voice, "I understand. Thank you, young scholar."

He had not expected Liu Biao to be such a man. In the past, he had only heard tales of his imposing and dignified appearance; now it seemed truly as Cao Cao had said—Liu Biao possessed an empty reputation without substance, and was by no means a great hero.