Chapter Four: The Prophecy Fulfilled

March 23rd, the Cao army officially launched its offensive. The forces advanced east, crossed the Si River, then marched north, aiming directly for Liangcheng County.

Liangcheng was the southern gateway to Shan County; once this city fell, the road north to Shan County would be wide open.

Tao Qian had only dispatched two or three thousand men to defend this place, keeping his main force huddled within Shan City.

No one anticipated, however, that the main force of the Cao army did not proceed north, but instead headed south to Xiapi, ruthlessly slaughtering the people of Qulü, Xiaqiu, Juling, and other towns near the Huainan region until none remained.

By March 26th, the news of Cao Cao’s attack on Liangcheng reached Zengyang Hamlet several days later. Deng Hong summoned Shen Chen to meet in the courtyard once again; the two knelt facing each other, grandfather and grandson. Deng Hong spoke in a deep voice, “A-Chen, Cao Cao is besieging Liangcheng.”

Shen Chen nodded calmly, “It was expected.”

Deng Hong frowned, “But you said Cao Cao would first break Xiapi and ignore Donghai, yet now he’s charging toward Donghai.”

Shen Chen smiled, “Granduncle, this is Cao Cao’s feint. To slaughter Xuzhou, his forces must be spread out. If Tao Gongzu were more astute and launched an attack, he’d surely defeat the Cao army. Thus, Cao Cao must create the illusion of a massive army pressing the border, while secretly massacring Xiapi.”

“Is that so?” Deng Hong had originally summoned Shen Chen to tell him his judgment was mistaken—that Cao Cao simply wanted to attack Shan County for his father’s revenge and wouldn’t threaten the villagers.

Yet Shen Chen’s reasoning made sense, leaving Deng Hong uncertain and unable to deliver his intended rebuke.

Shen Chen stated gravely, “Indeed, in a few days, Granduncle will see the truth for himself.”

“Well then, let us wait and see,” Deng Hong replied, unable to think of a rebuttal. Time would prove everything.

After returning home, Shen Chen immediately warned his parents and brothers that Cao Cao had already arrived, threatening to wipe out Xuzhou and having already slaughtered tens of thousands of civilians. He urged them to quickly pack their belongings and prepare to flee.

Though reluctant to abandon their home, Shen Chen’s words were never spoken without reason, so they tearfully began gathering their possessions, readying themselves for escape.

By March 28th, the Cao army was still besieging Liangcheng.

Then several skilled horsemen selected from the clan returned to Deng Hong, bringing news so dire it nearly suffocated him: the Cao army had slaughtered Qulü County, killing tens of thousands of civilians!

It was afternoon, nearing early summer. The weather in Xuzhou was growing hot. In the courtyard of the Deng family home in Zengyang Hamlet, Deng Hong felt as if he had fallen into an ice pit, cold sweat pouring down his body.

Cao Cao was truly massacring cities!

“Is the news real?” He asked twice, barely able to believe it.

A clansman replied, “Sixth Uncle, I saw it with my own eyes. Qulü is nothing but scorched earth—mountains of corpses, rivers of blood, not a chicken or dog left within dozens of miles. We were terrified and fled, fearing the Cao army would spot us.”

“It’s over, it’s over, it’s all over.” Deng Hong collapsed onto his mat, muttering in panic, his mind in chaos. Suddenly remembering something, his eyes lit up. “Quick, summon A-Chen!”

By the time Shen Chen arrived, Deng Hong had recovered from the shock.

Seeing Shen Chen, he said excitedly, “A-Chen, you were right—Cao Cao has slaughtered Qulü!”

Shen Chen paused for a moment, then his expression darkened. “I wish my prediction were wrong. Alas, so many innocent lives.”

“What should we do now?” Deng Hong asked.

Shen Chen answered bitterly, “There’s nothing to be done. We must flee—move the clan south, and there may be hope for survival.”

Deng Hong asked, “Is Xuzhou impossible to defend?”

“If, before Cao Cao’s massacre, a capable ruler were appointed as Xuzhou’s governor, perhaps there’d be hope. But after the slaughter, Xuzhou will be in chaos—impossible to defend!”

Shen Chen shook his head.

After arriving in this world, he had come to understand Xuzhou’s plight more deeply.

Warfare in ancient times was a matter of logistics and political acumen. Tao Qian’s governance was mediocre; during his tenure, he was inept and corrupt, and disorder was rampant.

There was little grain stored, and most local officials and magistrates throughout Xuzhou ignored his commands.

Xue Li, Chancellor of Pengcheng, quarreled with Tao Qian, suffered persecution, and resigned.

Zuo Rong, Chancellor of Xiapi, embezzled tax and grain from Pengcheng, Xiapi, and Guangling to expand Buddhism, and fled to Guangling when Cao Cao invaded.

Zhao Yu, Governor of Guangling, was loyal and upright, frequently submitting reports to advise Tao Qian, but was ignored and ultimately murdered by Zuo Rong after his flight to Guangling.

Xiao Jian, Chancellor of Langya, kept to himself; Zang Ba, Cavalry Commander, occupied Kaiyang and became his own lord. Neither obeyed Tao Qian’s orders.

In truth, Tao Qian, as governor of Xuzhou, could only control Donghai.

Donghai had a population of seven hundred thousand in Emperor He’s era, but the Yellow Turban rebellion sharply reduced it. Tao Qian conscripted troops to resist Cao Cao, and over twenty thousand soldiers were lost at Pengcheng.

Now, Tao Qian’s only assets were four or five thousand Danyang soldiers and the forces of Cao Bao—altogether fewer than ten thousand men.

Donghai’s population was sparse, grain supply limited, and the gentry and powerful families of Xuzhou had their own agendas, lacking unity. They could never withstand Cao Cao.

Later generations claimed Tao Qian was a benevolent gentleman, offering the governorship to Liu Bei for the sake of Xuzhou’s people.

In reality, Xuzhou was a rotten mess, decayed to the core.

To remedy it, at least two years would be needed to govern Pengcheng and Xiapi, then attack Guangling to eliminate Zuo Rong, and finally win over Zang Ba and Xiao Jian.

But Cao Cao would never grant that time. When Liu Bei held Xuzhou, his troops barely exceeded ten thousand, and Yuan Shu and Lü Bu further destabilized the region, leaving him exhausted.

In truth, even if Cao Cao himself became governor of Xuzhou, rising above the chaos would be nearly impossible.

To summarize, Xuzhou’s ailments before Cao Cao’s massacre were twofold:

First, four of Xuzhou’s five counties refused to obey the governor, leaving power scattered and unity absent.

Second, Tao Qian was aged and incompetent, fostering severe internal disorder and poor governance.

After Cao Cao’s massacre, a third problem emerged: following the Yellow Turban uprising, Xuzhou’s population fell below two million. Cao Cao alone killed hundreds of thousands, forcing southern Xuzhou’s people to migrate to Yangzhou, further reducing numbers.

With famine, disaster, and plague added to the mix, by the time Liu Bei occupied Xuzhou, its population was under a million—possibly even less, as the powerful families concealed many residents, causing severe losses.

Yuan Shu repeatedly harassed the region, and Lü Bu betrayed Liu Bei, leaving him with less than ten thousand soldiers—mostly Danyang troops left by Tao Qian and units from Cao Bao, who did not obey Liu Bei, making every step difficult.

With so many internal and external threats, it was not just Liu Bei’s mediocre strategy—had his ancestors Liu Xiu or Liu Bang been in his place, they too would have been beaten into flight.

Upon hearing Shen Chen’s analysis, Deng Hong hesitated, then gritted his teeth. “A-Chen, come, let us convene a clan meeting.”