Chapter Six: Analysis

April the first, not yet summer, in the governor’s mansion of Shanyin City in Donghai State, Xuzhou, Tao Qian was recuperating in the rear courtyard. His health had been poor lately, keeping him confined to his home, but he widely scattered scouts and spies, eager to learn of Cao Cao’s movements.

Two days prior, news reached him that Cao’s army had massacred Qulü, tens of thousands of civilians slain. Tao Qian vomited blood and fell unconscious upon hearing it. After finally regaining consciousness, he learned that the people were preparing to flee, and wished to understand the situation more clearly.

“You say an eight-year-old child warned the villagers, sparking this exodus?” Tao Qian was taken aback.

Cao Hong replied, “Precisely so. I have sent for the child, and Your Excellency may question him directly.”

“Bring him in,” said Tao Qian, summoning Shen Chen to the main hall.

These days, Shen Chen had been assisting the elders with clan affairs. Fleeing was not merely a matter of gathering valuables and fleeing aimlessly—it required planning and direction. Everything, great and small, had to be listed, distinguishing what to take and what to leave, to facilitate decision-making. Someone had to scout Mount Niqu for suitable places to reside temporarily. After all, this was a mass flight of over a thousand people, and unlike the disciplined commands of an army, each household had its own troubles.

Thus, it took several days before the first migration group, organized by Deng Hong, was able to set out northward. Shen Chen had originally been in the second group, but unexpectedly Tao Qian sent someone to investigate the situation. Cao Hong ordered him to go to Shanyin City and explain matters to Tao Qian, so he had no choice but to comply.

Entering the main hall, Shen Chen saw Tao Qian, old and silver-haired on the seat of honor. With proper composure, Shen Chen strode in, bowed and saluted, saying, “Shen Chen pays respects to Lord Tao.”

“You are Shen Chen?” Tao Qian scrutinized him—a child of eight, barely half the height of a grown man, face tender and youthful, but his eyes shone brightly, full of spirit.

Shen Chen replied calmly, “Replying to Lord Tao, I am Shen Chen.”

“Sit.”

“Thank you, Lord Tao.”

“I hear you incited the villagers to leave. Is this true?”

Once Shen Chen was seated, Tao Qian abruptly questioned him.

Shen Chen answered solemnly, “Cao the traitor is cruel; to seize Xuzhou, he must first slaughter it. For the sake of the villagers and their lives, I had no choice but to urge my clan to flee elsewhere.”

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Tao Qian asked in surprise, “How did you know Cao Cao would inevitably massacre Xuzhou?”

Shen Chen explained, “Xuzhou is wealthy, coveted by Yuan Shu. At present, Cao Cao is not strong enough to confront Yuan Shu directly; thus, to prevent Yuan Shu from gaining Xuzhou, he must lay it to ruin.”

This perspective was new and unexpected.

Tao Qian was deeply surprised.

Cao Cao’s banner had always been one of avenging his father. Upon hearing of Xuzhou’s slaughtered populace, Tao Qian had suffered all the more, believing himself the cause of Xuzhou’s calamity.

Yet Shen Chen told him the true reason behind Cao Cao’s massacre: to prevent Yuan Shu from gaining Xuzhou, which Tao Qian had not considered.

After pondering a moment, Tao Qian probed, “Child, do you have a strategy to lift Xuzhou from danger?”

Shen Chen shook his head, “Had it been two months ago, there might have been a way. Now, all that remains is to hold out alone and await an opportunity.”

“Why two months? What could have been done then?” Tao Qian asked, puzzled.

Shen Chen responded, “Previously, Yuan Shu eyed Xuzhou greedily. When Cao Cao attacked, you, Lord Tao, could have sent envoys to Yuan Shu, offering to cede Xiapi, Pengcheng, and Guangling, provoking rivalry between Cao and Yuan—‘to drive away wolves by feeding tigers.’ Now, Xuzhou lies in ruin, and Yuan Shu may no longer exert himself to seize it. Thus, I say, two months ago it was possible; now, one can only hold firm.”

“Nonsense, child!” Cao Hong, unable to endure further, rebuked, “Yuan Shu is a jackal, often seeking to raid Xuzhou from the north. Drawing him in is no different from inviting a wolf into the house! My lord, I think this boy is all appearance, nothing more than a boastful brat.”

“The words of a child are indeed too naïve,” Tao Qian said, disappointment evident. “Yuan Shu was defeated by Cao Cao only because he overextended his forces and lacked supplies. Now, he raises troops in Huainan, numbering over a hundred thousand, with ample provisions. If he comes to Xuzhou, how could Cao Cao stand against him? The land would fall to Yuan Shu.”

“In ancient times, Xiang Tuo at seven taught Confucius, Gan Luo at twelve was prime minister of Qin. Ambition is not measured by age, but by wisdom,” Shen Chen said gravely. “Lord Tao sees only Yuan Shu’s strength, not Cao Cao’s predicament. Ru’nan, Chen State, Pei State—all are occupied by Yuan Shu. Cao Cao is surrounded on all sides. If Xuzhou falls to Yuan Shu, he will be encircled, so he would never hand Xuzhou over!”

Though later generations would call Yuan Shu a decayed corpse in a tomb and believe he was weak, he was in fact very powerful.

Not only Yuan Shu; Tao Qian had once been formidable as well.

Cao Cao’s rise in the chaos of the Central Plains, seizing Henan, was not a king crushing bronze, but gods fighting, carving a bloody path among kings.

At his peak, Yuan Shu controlled all of Henan’s Yuzhou and the most fertile lands of Huainan in Yangzhou, commanding seventeen legions, almost the strongest overlord in the south.

His strategic vision, however, was abysmal—he lacked direction, attacked whomever he pleased, flitting about like a headless fly.

He had attacked Liu Biao and suffered defeat, attacked Cao Cao and suffered defeat, later contended with Liu Bei and Lü Bu in Xuzhou with mixed results, then declared himself emperor, losing all prestige, ultimately perishing in drought and famine, ending a reckless life.

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But all that would happen years hence. At present, Yuan Shu had merely suffered defeats when attacking Jingzhou and Yanzhou; his main forces and troops remained intact.

His sphere of influence even included part of Chenliu County in Yanzhou, bordering Cao Cao’s territory.

Of course, since Yuzhou was devastated, Yuan Shu had only sent officials to govern these places, without deploying many troops.

Officials such as Yuan Si in Chen State and Shu Shao in Pei State were his appointees, but as for local administration or military garrisons, there were almost none.

Hence, two years later, when Cao Cao’s power grew, he swiftly expelled Yuan Shu’s influence from Chenliu, Chen State, and Ru’nan, seizing these places for himself and preparing to command the emperor and lord over the nobles.

For now, Yuan Shu’s chief base remained Huainan.

He did not occupy Henan but Huainan for two reasons.

First, like Xuzhou, Henan was flat and open, a battleground with no natural defenses.

Second, Henan had been devastated during the Yellow Turban Rebellion—its population depleted, land barren, unlike the wealth of Huainan, which could support his armies.

Thus, Yuan Shu’s domain was broad, but its real reach was limited to Jiangdong and Xuzhou.

Jiangdong had not been developed during the Han dynasty, only after the “Five Barbarians” chaos and the migration of gentry south did it begin to thrive, so Yuan Shu had little interest in Jiangdong.

His sole avenue for expansion, therefore, was Xuzhou.

From Cao Cao’s perspective, Huainan, held by Yuan Shu, was prosperous, and Xuzhou lay just north, adjacent, separated only by a river.

If both Huainan and Xuzhou fell to Yuan Shu, he would have two rich territories to build upon, making Cao Cao’s situation perilous.

At the time, Cao Cao’s domain lay in Yanzhou’s Dong County, Ji Yin County, Shanyang County, Ji Bei, Rencheng, and Dongping—roughly modern Jining to Heze in Shandong.

Ru’nan was in ruins, Yuan Shu merely controlled it without developing it, so it posed no threat to Cao Cao’s rear.

Xuzhou’s riches, if gained by Yuan Shu, would be like wings to a tiger; his strength would soar, and he would be dangerously close to Cao Cao’s stronghold, able to strike at any time.

Thus, from Tao Qian’s standpoint, inviting Yuan Shu in was tantamount to letting the wolf into the house.

Yet from Cao Cao’s position, the same logic applied—it was also letting the wolf in, and he would never allow Yuan Shu to take Xuzhou.