Chapter Seven: An Encounter

Tao Qian coughed twice, his complexion slightly pale. After carefully listening to Shen Chen’s suggestion, he seemed to find some sense in it. Yet, after pondering for a moment, he still thought Shen Chen’s plan too idealistic. He said, “You wish to use Xuzhou as a peach to kill two tigers, but Cao Cao cannot tolerate me, and Yuan Shu is at odds with me as well. How could I possibly sit atop the mountain and watch the tigers fight?”

Back when Yuan Shu and Yuan Shao broke with each other, Tao Qian had once allied with Gongsun Zan and Yuan Shu, while Yuan Shao sided with Cao Cao and Liu Biao. The two factions had fought several large-scale battles in Yanzhou, Yuzhou, and elsewhere.

When Yuan Shu marched north to attack Yanzhou, Tao Qian had dispatched troops to seize Rencheng and Taishan—territories under Cao Cao’s control. Later, after Cao Cao routed Yuan Shu, the Black Mountain Army, and the Southern Xiongnu at Kuangting, he turned on Tao Qian, driving him back to Xuzhou and thus dissolving the alliance.

Thus, Tao Qian was now not only enemies with Cao Cao, but also on poor terms with Yuan Shu. It was common knowledge that Yuan Shu coveted Xuzhou, and Tao Qian feared that if he let Yuan Shu in, instead of fighting each other, Yuan Shu and Cao Cao might first join forces to destroy him.

The premise of the fisherman profiting from the fight between the snipe and the clam is that the fisherman must be stronger than both. If, standing beside the snipe and clam, there is only an earthworm, then the final result is simply that the first and second fight, and the third dies.

Shen Chen had naturally considered this. He replied earnestly, “That is why, Master Tao, you must contract your forces and preserve yourself. You also need one or two reliable external allies as reinforcements to turn danger into safety.”

“Who could aid me?” asked Tao Qian.

“I heard that you have already sent for Lord Wenju of Beihai,” Shen Chen said. “It is impossible, at this point, to defeat Cao Cao entirely. But you could first pacify Zang Ba and Xiao Jian in the north, use Langya as your rear and Donghai as your shield, rely on the troops of Lord Wenju, appoint Lord Xuande of Pingyuan as your general, and then lure Yuan Shu in. Perhaps then you can slowly work toward your goal.”

“Liu Bei, the Chancellor of Pingyuan?” Tao Qian was bewildered. “What does this have to do with Liu Bei?”

Shen Chen explained, “I once heard from refugees who fled from Qingzhou to Xuzhou that last year, when Beihai was besieged by the Yellow Turbans, Prefect Kong invited Lord Xuande to lift the siege. Now, Lord Xuande is in Beihai.”

“I see,” Tao Qian sighed. “Alas, had I heard your plan two months ago, perhaps it might have worked. But now, Xuzhou lies in ruins. If I bring Yuan Shu here, am I not seeking my own destruction?”

Shen Chen said, “That is true, but it is not entirely hopeless.”

“Pray, speak further.”

“Cao Cao is cruel and heartless. I have heard he has slain many notable men in Yanzhou, and the great families there harbor deep resentment. Now that he leads his army in campaign, I wager his rear will descend into chaos.”

“Oh?” Tao Qian opened his eyes wide. “Will it truly be so?”

“Please consider this my prophecy,” Shen Chen replied. “If things unfold as I predict, then when the time comes, Master Tao must first hold firm to the city, await the opportune moment, and recover lost territory. Once Liu Bei aids you, secure Donghai and Langya, ally with Lord Wenju to the north, and draw Yuan Shu south into Peiguo and Xiapi. With three sides contending, Xuzhou should be safe for the time being.”

This would be a miniature version of the Three Kingdoms, with three-way balance. Although Tao Qian would be the weakest, as long as he could integrate Zang Ba’s and Xiao Jian’s forces and ally with Kong Rong, he could assemble twenty or thirty thousand troops—barely enough to contest Cao Cao and Yuan Shu in Xuzhou.

Yet, this judgment fit only the present. For Cao Cao was about to return to Yanzhou to fight Lü Bu, and that struggle would last two years, leaving him no time to concern himself with the east. At that moment, drawing Yuan Shu into Xuzhou would truly be inviting disaster.

The trouble was, even if Tao Qian didn’t invite him, Yuan Shu was already planning to seize Xuzhou while Cao Cao and Lü Bu were at war.

Thus, whatever strategy Shen Chen devised could not alter the underlying reality. Still, because his predictions were so accurate, he would leave the impression of having inexhaustible stratagems.

This was precisely the outcome Shen Chen desired.

Tao Qian sighed, “If only I had found you sooner! Would you be willing to step into public life?”

Cao Hong quickly interjected, “My lord, to send an eight-year-old into office would make us a laughingstock.”

Shen Chen also declined, saying, “The official is right. I am only eight this year, and will not turn nine until October. If I were to take office, how could I command respect? Besides, I fear you do not yet fully trust me. Therefore, I ask to flee with my family and hide in the Taishan mountains. If things unfold as I have predicted, you may decide then.”

“Hmm…” Tao Qian pondered for a moment, ultimately admitting he had been too hasty, and agreed to Shen Chen’s request. It was mainly that Cao Cao had pressed him so hard that he was desperate, clutching at any remedy.

After discussing a few other matters, Tao Qian closed his eyes, feeling utterly exhausted, his body beginning to fail.

Shen Chen took his leave. Outside the governor’s office, relatives of the Deng and Shen clans awaited him. Once he emerged, they immediately escorted him back to Xiangben, and the whole family began their flight north.

On the fourth day of the fourth month, another force led by Cao Ren attacked Kaiyang, Jiqiu, and Feiguo counties in Langya. Tao Qian was greatly alarmed, for this was his rear. He hurriedly sent help to the northern counties.

But this was only a small detachment meant to distract Tao Qian. After failing to capture the counties, they immediately withdrew south to rejoin Cao Cao.

On the eighth day of the fourth month, large forces under Cao Cao began a fierce assault on Xiapi and other county seats.

They took Lü, Juling, and Xiaqiu, slaughtering all in their path. Men and women by the tens of thousands were killed; not even chickens or dogs were spared. The Si River ran red with blood, and five towns barricaded themselves, ceasing all movement.

By now, Shen Chen had fled into Mt. Niqiu, on the southern slopes of Mt. Yi. The dense, rugged mountains made it too troublesome for Cao’s troops to hunt him down, so he escaped unscathed.

On the twenty-fourth day of the fourth month, Liu Bei and Kong Rong’s reinforcements finally arrived in Xuzhou, joining Tao Qian’s troops on the outskirts and clashing with Cao Cao’s forces.

At that moment, Cao Cao’s main force was still in Xiapi. When he learned Tao Qian had linked up with reinforcements, he immediately marched his main army north, bent on destroying Tao Qian for good.

The two sides confronted each other at Xiangben. Because Cao Cao’s power was overwhelming, Tao Qian ordered Liu Bei and Cao Bao to hold Yan County, forbidding them from giving battle outside the walls.

By the beginning of May, the villagers of Huangmen Pavilion could bear it no longer and clamored to return home. Ancient farmers, with their meager productivity, toiled desperately, and after a year’s harvest and taxes, had only bare subsistence. Now, having hidden in Mt. Niqiu for over a month, their supplies were dwindling. The millet sprouts in the fields, untended, would be mostly ruined. With no harvest in the coming months, how could they survive?

Shen Chen had no solution. He conferred with Deng Mao and the elders of the Shen clan, and they decided to send scouts to assess the situation. If it was safe, they would lead the clan home.

So, on the third day of the fifth month, after consultation among the Deng and Shen elders, they gathered all the clan’s horses—a total of sixteen, all poor nags—and selected skilled riders to return to Xiangben and assess the situation.

Shen Chen was among them; he needed to see the circumstances for himself.

Leaving Mt. Niqiu, they reached the official road east of the Yi River—the road south from Jiqiu to Xiangben. It was mid-May, high summer. The mountains loomed on both sides, and the villages along the way were in ruins.

In later ages, this place would be Linyi City. To the west lay Mt. Niqiu, to the north Langya’s Kaiyang, to the southwest Lanling and Xiangben, and due south, Yan County.

At this moment, many refugees traveled the official road, scattered carts and people trudging south.

The late Han was an age of decline. In Tao Qian’s later years, his incompetence had thrown once-prosperous Xuzhou into chaos. Local governors hoarded troops and no longer heeded the provincial governor.

Qingzhou was even worse—a tangled mess. Gongsun Zan and Yuan Shao vied for control, Kong Rong struggled to survive, and roving Yellow Turban bands left the people destitute and homeless.

So, despite Xuzhou’s turmoil, many people still fled south into it, seeking stability, not realizing they were leaving a wolf’s den only to enter a tiger’s lair.

News of Cao Cao’s massacres had not yet spread. Among the travelers was another caravan, moving slowly south.

This was clearly a great family of the bureaucratic class, escorted by armoured guards with weapons at the ready.

It was the migration of the Zhuge family of Langya, led by Zhuge Xuan.

A few years earlier, Liu Biao had sent Zhuge Xuan to Chang’an to pay tribute to the Emperor, with a guard of several hundred men. Later, when Zhuge Xuan went to Shandong to care for his cousin’s orphan, Liu Biao again provided military protection.

In the turbulent final years of the Han, bandits roamed everywhere. Even regular armies seldom had armor; at Yuan Shao’s peak, he had only ten thousand suits, and now Cao Cao had only a few hundred. That Liu Biao could send hundreds of armored men to guard Zhuge Xuan showed his regard for the man.

At this moment, Zhuge Xuan rode at the head of his party. Behind him, several carriages followed, one of which bore the thirteen-year-old Zhuge Liang, sitting upright in the carriage.

Han dynasty carriages came in many forms. His was a light open carriage, like a pickup truck with a sunshade.

He rode with his younger brother Zhuge Jun. Their progress was slow, and Zhuge Liang cast his eyes around, observing the refugees with a distant, pensive gaze.

Just then, from a mountain path on the right, over a dozen mounted riders emerged, alarming the nearby refugees.

Fortunately, people soon saw they wore no military uniforms but the plain clothes of commoners, and the panic quickly subsided.

The riders joined the caravan, moving more slowly now. Their horses were poor, and with so many refugees on the road, they had to take care not to trample anyone.

Shen Chen rode with a skilled uncle, a man who had once been called up to guard the northern frontiers and thus was adept at horsemanship, sitting perfectly poised in the saddle.

Shen Chen studied the migrating group with curiosity, noting most were wealthy farmers, lesser gentry, or even powerful landlords—only such people could afford to flee. Ordinary folk, during the Yellow Turban chaos, either joined the rebels or were plundered and left to starve, lacking the means for such journeys.

As he passed a group obviously of official status, with armored guards, he saw in one carriage a boy of twelve or thirteen, strikingly handsome, with fair skin and an elegant bearing, who was also gazing at him in curiosity.

Their eyes met for a moment, then parted with no further connection.

Their horses moved a little faster than the carriages. Eager to see how things stood in Xiangben, the clan pressed ahead, weaving through the crowd, slowly making their way forward.